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The electrification of transportation and the development of renewable energies are expected to result in a reduction in overall mining activity. The increased demand for certain materials will not compensate for the decrease in coal extraction.
It's one of the main arguments against electric vehicles and renewable energy sources. The energy transition is expected to lead to a phenomenal increase in the demand for metals, and the extraction of these metals is believed to be more harmful to the planet than beneficial. However, massive electrification is likely to reduce the overall mining footprint worldwide.
There is no doubt that the demand for materials related to the energy transition will surge. Photovoltaic, wind energy, electric vehicles, electric grids, hydrogen... In 2021, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicted a fourfold increase in demand by 2040 within the context of a carbon-neutral strategy by 2050 (NZE). This factor would double if we consider the commitments made by states, which are still insufficient.
Half of this surge in metal demand is associated with the growth of electric vehicles and energy storage by batteries. For this single sector, the demand for metals like copper, nickel, and lithium would multiply by thirty in a carbon-neutral scenario. This sector would consume even 40 times more lithium than it does currently.
To make a fair comparison with the current situation, we must consider the reality of mining operations. The production of one kilogram of coal does not require the same mining extraction as one kilogram of lithium or aluminum due to variations in metal concentration and mining methods. In a recent study, Dutch researchers pointed out that the quantity of metals needed for batteries would result in mining extraction 56 times higher. This factor is thirteen for photovoltaics and nine for wind energy, depending on the assumptions made by the IEA.
As of now, with the current recycling practices, achieving the NZE scenario would lead to a halving of the total quantity of minerals extracted, considering all materials, according to the Dutch study. In 2021, around 12,500 million tons (Mt) of coal ore were extracted, while the NZE scenario anticipated lower extraction at 8,400 Mt. If this trajectory is corrected, the total ore extraction would reach 6,800 Mt by 2040, mainly consisting of copper, nickel, lithium, iron, and still some hundreds of million tons of coal.
The reduced mining footprint associated with the energy transition had already been highlighted by other studies. In 2021, an Australian-Japanese study, which took into account the extraction of all fossil fuels and the displacement of "overburden" by mining, also resulted in a smaller mining footprint in 2050, with a decrease of about 20 billion tons, a one-third reduction compared to 2010.
In all cases, improving battery recycling and renewable energy production methods could significantly reduce the need for metals, and consequently, the associated mining footprint, by several tens of million tons in 2040.
According to Didier Julienne, Director of Commodities & Resources, the IEA's figures regarding the increased demand for critical metals are also questionable because they do not account for the latest technological advancements in substitution. "The widespread adoption of LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries instead of NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) batteries would eliminate the demand for these two metals, nickel and cobalt, in electric vehicle batteries," he justifies. "In China, over half of electric vehicle batteries are now LFP batteries. In Europe, Volkswagen, Stellantis, Mercedes, BMW, Ford, and Tesla have all announced plans to use LFP batteries," the specialist adds.
Therefore, it is conceivable that the electric vehicles of 2040, along with other tools of the energy transition, will use different technologies than those of 2025. There are already rare earth-free wind turbines, for example. The material requirements will thus be different and likely lower than anticipated. Recycling will also help build metal reserves, reducing the need for extraction. Starting from 2045, according to the Dutch study, the quantities of copper, nickel, iron, and other metals extracted each year will decrease.
However, this does not solve all the problems. "Geopolitical questions arise when mines and especially metal refining facilities are located in countries that are on average less democratic and less open than the countries at the heart of coal extraction," notes Didier Julienne. Nevertheless, Western countries are currently pursuing investment policies to reduce their dependency.
The energy transition will need to be accompanied by a mining transition, particularly in Europe, but on a much smaller scale than anticipated by the IEA. While "the mining industry is always a compromise between development and the environment," as emphasized by Didier Julienne, "the environmental impact of underground mining will continue to decrease thanks to new technologies, which have already allowed this industry to make immense progress. This is why deep-sea mining is unnecessary and likely permanently banned due to unresolved ecological issues."